By Knute Berger, November 18, 2015
We’re coming up on the second anniversary of Bertha’s big break down. The tunnel diggers hope to have her boring again on Dec. 23. If she works, that would be a nice, albeit expensive, Christmas gift for the city.
Still, the problems of the last two years
have turned us all into spectators, perhaps cynical ones. The big
questions that loom: Will a refurbished Bertha make it to the end, or
die underground again in an even more problematic location? And if she
does break down again, what is Plan B?
None of us yet knows the answer, but one man
predicted we’d be in this fix. Boston-based consultant Thomas Neff, who
knows his tunnels and megaprojects, warned the city of Seattle in 2010
that Bertha was a high-risk project: The machine was of unprecedented
size, the soil conditions were highly problematic, and the water
pressure a major complication.
While some dismissed Neff’s findings as
fitting all too well with Mayor Mike McGinn’s opposition to the tunnel,
all those concerns have turned out to be major issues. And none of them
have changed in the last two years that Bertha has been idled. The
machine’s size, the soil and water conditions would still rate highly on
Neff’s risk scale.
There have been other complications as well:
The repair pit might have caused the damage to water mains on First and
Western Avenues, requiring a major replacement. The time delay has set
back work on the planned waterfront makeover, and the time frame for
disruptions there and in Pioneer Square have been lengthened by years.
Also, new measurements show the Alaskan Way Viaduct continues to sink and crack.
The idea of removing the Viaduct came about
principally because of damage from the Nisqually quake and the risk of
collapse in a quake. Unfortunately, by choosing to keep it standing
during tunnel boring, not only must it totter longer than expected, but
it also might be reaching its expiration date more quickly. For now,
WSDOT insists it’s safe to drive.
He points to new challenges for the tunnel
machine and its operators ahead: As Bertha presses forward, it must make
a turn and dig even deeper. It also has to go under the Viaduct. Water
pressure issues will likely get worse before they get better. If there’s
some new problem that requires reaching the tunnel boring machine,
extraction becomes more difficult once it’s under downtown. It doesn’t
get much easier for a while.
In a recent column for ENR: Engineering News-Record,
Neff reiterated his skepticism about a refurbished Bertha completing
its assignment. “Given the evidence to date, my opinion is that Bertha
will not finish the tunnel, but that some other machine, or process
might. The project will likely not be complete in early 2018, and much
more money will be required.”
In his article, he turns to Game Theory and
says we’re trapped in the classic so-called “Prisoner’s Dilemma” where
the tunnel builders and the taxpayers will have to shift from getting an
optimal outcome and cooperate to accept a bad outcome in order to avoid
“a VERY BAD” outcome.
The tunnel situation “reminds me of the famous quote from Italo Calvino’s 1979 novel, If On a Winter’s Night a Traveler,
‘You know that the best you can expect is to avoid the worst.’ In this
case, the worst outcome would be two completed portals, no connecting
tunnel, and a very long court battle,” writes Neff.
Pessimism? Realism? Neff tells it like he
sees it, and his credibility should be enhanced by his 2010 warnings.
Some might dismiss him as a Cassandra, the prophetess from Greek
mythology who was cursed not to be believed. Today the term Cassandra is
often synonymous with “naysayer,” but people often forget this part of
the myth: Cassandra was right.